With today’s announcement that Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa will not be running for Governor of California, the Democratic field has been reduced to presumably two candidates — San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and California Attorney General and former California Governor Jerry Brown. With California Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi out of the race in an attempt to win an congressional seat, it leaves only Newsom and Brown to face off for the Democratic nomination.

Villaraigosa made the smart move

Antonio Villaraigosa’s approval in the City of Los Angeles had been diminishing for the past few months.  He won reelection in March by a 55% margin with no serious candidates opposing him.  This small margin of victory might be likened to a vote of no confidence by the voters of Los Angeles, who would hopefully make up the majority of his support going into a primary.  Combined with his budget that lays off city workers — who are members of major Los Angeles Labor Unions — Villaraigosa’s approval has dropped further since his reelection.

He just doesn’t have the traction needed to make it to the Governor’s office.

Democratic Race is now youth versus wisdom

Jerry Brown is a 40 year veteran of California Politics.  He even ran against Bill Clinton for the Democratic Nomination for President of the United States.  Gavin Newsom, on the other hand is a 5 year Mayor of San Francisco.  He has forever been immortalized as the guy who provoked the debate on same-sex marriage in California by opening the San Francisco Court to same-sex marriage licenses — branding him as a single issue candidate.

Brown’s challenge will be to convince the voters that he is still in tune with the people of California while Newsom’s will be to show everyone that he has the experience necessary to be the State’s top officer.  Each candidate’s strength is the other’s deficiency.

Republicans await them after the Primary

Even after the Democratic Primary the winner from the Democratic race will have to face either billionaire former-CEO Meg Whitman of Mitt Romney fame, or Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner of Silicon Valley in the General Election.  Either way, they face well funded Republican heavy-hitters.

Additionally, the recent tax increases approved by the Democrat-controlled Legislature will give the GOP a lot of ammunition with which to make their case to the voters.  Taxes are going to be the biggest issue in the 2010 Election and the Democratic Party has not done very well to keep taxes down in the State.

Republicans are looking good for 2010

With the public now trusting the Republican Party on 6 out of the 10 top voter issues (they were trusted 0 out of 10 in November 2008) it appears that voter opinion seems to be shifting to the GOP.  The Democrats need to find a strong candidate to get behind if they expect to win in 2010.  Newsom or Brown might not be the answer.