Assemblywoman Audra Strickland

The Issue: Audra Strickland is running for her 3rd term as the Assemblywomen of California’s 37th District.  She is opposed for the 3rd time by Democratic opponent Ferial Masry.  There has been speculation over the outcome of the 37th Assembly District Race.  Is Audra Strickland expected to win re-election?

Audra Strickland succeeded her husband Tony Strickland as the Assemblyperson representing the 37th Assembly District.  The district spans a majority of Ventura County (minus Ventura and Oxnard) and includes parts of the San Fernando Valley.  The California Democratic Central Committee has spent some money recently in supporting Ferial Masry, in the form of mailers and there has been speculation as to whether Audra Strickland will maintain the seat.  While money is important, it is ultimately the votes that elect officials, and the district is stacked in Strickland’s favor.

The District is a safe Republican Seat:

Now I am not a fan of California’s gerrymandered districts (read my post supporting Prop 11- Redistricting Reform), but whether I like them or not I have to accept the consequences of what they have produced.  In the case of AD 37, they have produced a Republican seat.

Assembly District 37

Assembly District 37 was designed for a Republican victory.  According to the Secretary of State’s Report of Voter Registration from September 5, 2008 (60 days before the November Election), Ventura County has about 39% of it’s voters registered Republican and 39% registered Democrat.  However, the two cities with highest Democratic voter concentration, Ventura and Oxnard, are not part of AD 37.  They are part of AD 35 and lumped in with the Santa Barbara County voters, another product of the district gerrymandering but this time favoring Democrats.  Also, the 3 municipalities with the highest Republican concentration in the San Fernando Valley, West Hills, Chatsworth and Porter Ranch are part of AD 37, rather than the Democrat-heavy AD 40.

The design of this district gives the Republican Candidate a huge advantage.  According to the Secretary of State’s Election Night Results for the June 3, 2008 Primaries that Audra Strickland and Ferial Masry both won their party’s endorsements in, 25,113 Democrats voted and 30,850 Republicans voted.  Strickland’s party represented 55% of the voters compared to 45% of Masry’s.

Audra Strickland is also very popular with her voter base.  She has been working locally to stop the development of a Prison Hospital in Camarillo, one of the many facilities currently involved in a funding battle in the California courts.  She also has signed the Americans for Tax Reform No-Tax Pledge.  Taxes are a major wedge issue for voters in Ventura County where a majority of voters own their homes.

Fundraising favors Strickland:

To Ferial Masry’s credit, she has significant support behind her from the Democratic Party.  $38,619 in campaign contributions have been made in the last 3 days for Masry from the California Democratic Central Committee and Assembly Speaker Karen Bass is planned to help her fundraise this week in Camarillo.  Strickland however, wins the total fundraising battle, raising at total of $791,044 to date for her campaign compared to Masry’s $111,597.

Analysis: There’s no way Masry can win.

The odds are stacked against Masry.  She has less Democratic voters in the district and less money.  AD 37 is clearly designed for a GOP win.

[Disclosure:  The author has volunteered time for the Audra Strickland Re-Election Campaign]