Tom McClintock Likely to Win Election To California’s 4th Congressional District
September 29th, 2008
State Senator Tom McClintock at a campaign rally for his congressional race.
The Issue: Congressman John Doolittle (Republican, 4th Congressional District) announced in January that he will not be seeking another term in the US House of Representatives to represent California’s 4th District in Northern California. The seat is being contested by Charlie Brown, a Democrat from Roseville and Tom McClintock, a Republican from Thousand Oaks. Who is likely to win the election for the 4th Congressional District of California?
The 4th Assembly includes the following counties that make up the northeastern corner of the state of California.
- Butte County
A Map of California's 4th Congressional District
- El Dorado County
- Lassen County
- Modoc County
- Nevada County
- Placer County
- Plumas County
- Sacramento County
- Sierra County
The two candidates for this seat come from different places both ideologically and geographically.
Charlie Brown, Candidate for California Congress, District 4
Tom McClintock, the Republican candidate from Thousand Oaks is a well known conservative in California’s Legislature. He is probably the most conservative Republcian in the State Senate. He has been a State Assemblyman and State Senator and ran for Governor in the 2003 Recall Election.
Charlie Brown, the Democratic nominee from Roseville has not served in public office but has a 26 year long record with the United States Military. He ran for this congress seat in 2006 against incumbent John Doolittle and lost by a 3 percent margin.
The Numbers: The 4th District leans to the right.
The California Secretary of State’s Office is the department of the government charged with facilitating fair elections in the state. They keep archives of the results of various contests. According to their Election Night results for the June 3 State Primary, 57,539 votes were cast in the Democratic Primary and 93,523 votes were cast in the Republican Primary.
This means that in the most recent election Republicans voted more frequently than Democrats by a margin of 61.9 percent to 38.1 percent (23.8 percent difference). Charlie Brown has a lot of room to make up if he expects to make up almost 24 percent.
This article doesn’t address the needs of the people of the 4th Congressional District, but rather tries to show the enivitibiity of the election of Tom McClintock to Congress. Of course, my rough analysis doesn’t take into account many factors that influence elections, but politics is a numbers game. Whoever gets the most votes wins the election, and voters will probably choose someone from their party that they don’t completely agree with over someone from another party they completely disagree with. Charlie Brown is running as a Democrat in a very Republican Disctrict. It seems that his chances are slim.
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